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June 26, 2017 Totals raised a bit. High impact threat on U.S., Bahamas and Caribbean remains the same. Main Development Region looks more conducive for longer-tracked storms than earlier. Quick start to African Wave season usually indicative of a more active season. SSTs off the East Coast supply a ready source for heat into stronger ridges at the height of season and an energy source for any storm venturing in there. Changes have been made to the forecast, raising the number of storms and the total ACE. Cindy was a classic, early season development...

by WeatherBELL Press
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May 12, 2017 This is a challenging forecast. The analogs suggest low activity overall but high impact in the U.S. There are contradictions between the Euro forecast and the analogs. This is a very difficult year to forecast, far more than last year. I think the major hurricane drought is going to end this year. The concern, though, is a bit different with increased intensity near our coasts. When I first looked at the ECMWF MSLP forecast for the heart of the hurricane season, this is opposite of what the means have looked like over the past 11 years. The SST...

by WeatherBELL Press
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