Summer 2022 Outlook 2 months ago

February 24, 2022

  • The best chance for the coolest temperatures is over the northern Plains.
  • The southern Plains should have a lot of heat to deal with.

Analogs:

The analogs I am using are the La Niñas of 2008, 2011, and 2017.

The CFSv2 is warm everywhere:

If we keep in mind models can't see cold air very well, the areas of warmth and less warmth line up nicely.

The Euro only goes out to July but its three-month forecast ending then has a similar idea:

Canadian:

That is interesting, as it's actually seeing come cool air.

The Verdict

This is a preliminary look at summer. The models are of no help and the spring precipitation pattern will help us make adjustments moving forward. I feel the best chance for the coolest temperatures is over the northern Plains. The southern Plains should have a lot of heat to deal with as it's been very dry and should continue to be dry.