Summer 2022 Outlook 2 months ago
February 24, 2022
- The best chance for the coolest temperatures is over the northern Plains.
- The southern Plains should have a lot of heat to deal with.
The analogs I am using are the La Niñas of 2008, 2011, and 2017.
The CFSv2 is warm everywhere:
If we keep in mind models can't see cold air very well, the areas of warmth and less warmth line up nicely.
The Euro only goes out to July but its three-month forecast ending then has a similar idea:
That is interesting, as it's actually seeing come cool air.
This is a preliminary look at summer. The models are of no help and the spring precipitation pattern will help us make adjustments moving forward. I feel the best chance for the coolest temperatures is over the northern Plains. The southern Plains should have a lot of heat to deal with as it's been very dry and should continue to be dry.