D'Aleo-Early Spring Precipitation Recap and Optimistic Spring/Summer CFS Outlook 13 years ago

The winter was anomalous as La Ninas go. Normally La Ninas deliver heavy snow (and cold across the northern tier) and are dry in the south. 2010/11 was classic in that regard.

2011/12 except for a storm very early Halloween and a few very late was notable by its absence in the northeast. they stayed west of the major cities with heaviest snows in higher elevations. One major storm affected the northwest. Uncharacteristically a few storms brought snow to the southern Rockies and  central and southern plains - one near Christmas another in January. In general the snows in the western mountains was below normal. Their snow season can extend to June, so still some chances to play some catch up.

Here was the Halloween snowstorm.

Here is the current snowpack.

The last 90 days (essentially the meteorological winter was anomalously wet in the southern and central plains where drought had been extreme.

It was dry west and  southeast and anomalously dry in the Mid Mississippi Valley and Delta for La Nina, but wet as is to be expected in the eastern Corn Belt and central Appalachians.

Yes Don in Texas, we did not focus much attention in the premium site on the eastern Texas rains on the premium site though I did in the commercial site weekly. The rains in most La Ninas start from northern LA and AR and extend up the Ohio River Valley and across the west and north.

See how the rains helped reduce the deficits in Texas but how large deficits remain in places like Houston (17.4 inches). Dallas has a 1.8 inch deficit and Waco just 2.9 inches the last year.

The western mountain snowpack is most places below normal, in sharp contrast to last year.

Most areas thanks to the very snowy winter last year, have reservoirs in normal shape. Any kind of heavy spring precipitation will help.

Spring precipitation is forecast to be heaviest central with deficits northwest and southeast.

Summer precipitation is forecast in the plains to be heavy and temperatures cool by the CFS model. Again still dry along the southeast coast.