First of all, just saw the Euro, and all that is needed here is for the southern branch to be a bit quicker and we are back to where we were. It's a difficult pattern, but modeling is lousy at the speed of systems out of the southwest and the point is the players are on the field so there is no need to change the play call yet. There might be for you.... or you may not think there is any play to be called, fine, but normally systems in the southwest don't simply run out to sea with positive NAOs like we have developing.   So I am not going to change the idea I have on this.

A picture is worth a thousand words, and at the very least, I got what I came for in the pattern and now I just need the weather to do what it normally does given the pattern.

Here, look at the MJO in the Euro over the next month:

This is why 2, 3 in Feb and  2, 3 even 4 and 5, the latter two which are bad in winter, get good now. I could not have drawn this up any better and the change in this. And it's real. The SOI is well below the la nina base state.

What we need though is a series of newsmaking events that grab the attention of the skeptic.  I realize it's not good enough to show AO and MJO and the big picture items flipping. I guess if you are following me in Europe,  you got the message, but I know the score here in the states.

Interestingly enough, the NAM is in line with my snow forecast Thur in the Northeast and its fascinating since both the NAM and  GFS have the same 1000-500 mb thks, but the NAM sees more lower level cooling.

Hence its snow idea

That is pretty close to a forecast made a few days ago.

The GFS is not that far away, in spite of the warmer look

By the way, this is the biggest snowcover of the winter so far... which isn't saying much of course, but it did snow as far south as was alluded to last week when the big news was how warm it was going to get int the Plains and then NE.

ciao for now