February 5, 2023

• The hurricane season should be near or under the normal activity.

Named Storms: 10-14
Hurricanes: 4-7
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE: 60-90

I am expecting an El Niño to develop. There is no impact forecast yet (watch for that in April), but my take at this time is there won't be any above normal areas this year. The Caribbean will also see below normal activity.

The European indicates a moderate El Niño will be present by August, and so the numbers represent a blend of 2018, 2009, 2006, and 2002. 2015 was a major El Niño so it is not in the mix at this time. Remember, there is also a tendency for models to overestimate the water temperatures in the ENSO regions at this time of year (the so-called "Spring Predictability Barrier").

The Euro's precipitation forecast for June-August suggests the MJO will be in Phases 5 & 6:

MJO correlations: