The current coming of the cold is a product of a strat warm that has been backing off, but reached its high tide several days ago. Remember, it is 3-4 weeks after this starts that we look for the affects in the US. In any case, a new strat warm is starting now and will have major implications for the weather down the road in February. This one blooms fully, and while the GFS 5 days ago had no idea it would get this warm over the pole on day 15, 5 days later, for day 10, it now does.

To put this in perspective, look where we are now, and you can see why there should be a let up in the cold for a while at times even after it invades the northern part of the nation. As I said, from Portland, OR to Portland, ME it is going to get darn cold over the next 10 days. The eastern Portland may hit zero on Monday morning, and the western one may be in for snow next week, before a silver thaw and warm temps.

Anyway now:

So the new strat warm is starting, and it is stronger looking than the one that set this up.

Now look at the CFSv2 from a week ago for February when it was not seeing the strat warm versus now that it is. When you realize that this is based on a 10 day run of the model you realize that in order to get to where we are now on the right, the model had to be seeing something different going on in a big way. Remember, the GFS showed no signs of the strat warm that it is seeing now. It will be interesting to watch all this evolve.

But this is a huge big ticket fight, and of course the GFS after day 7 can't be trusted. However it is now showing my second system coming into the eastern trough, and with it weekend mischief and the colder shot into New England for early next week. The battle ground I drew for you way back to start the month for the mid month looks great as a general idea. There is nothing like east-west brutally cold air and the attempt at attacking it to set up a fight from the Plains to the Northeast. Again the GFS can't possibly handle the temperature differences and is all over the place. The best forecaster among operational models will be the Euro, and to show this one can look at the days 7-10 euro (left) and see how it is much more in line with the negative painted on what I think is the best of all the climate models out of the JMA center.

Here is the Euro and GFS for what is now the middle of week two:

Here is the JMA for the whole week, from last Thursday (heights are above temps, and temps below):

It has the cold west-east across the North, the warmth in Texas (next week) and the battle opined about.

And if I see it Thursday confirming what I think this strat warm means, look out.

This winter is not going to play nice. It is one way or the other, and the fight in between is not for the faint of heart or the model readers. The risk is with the kind of gradients at play here one can get blown out of the water. There is a lot of risk involved, but the challenge to all of us has got to be energizing. I like the way I have the overall ideas played now, but as wild as we may get with the fight , what is coming to the Lakes and the Midwest far outstrips that and that will be the highlight of some coming posts. The fight starts with the storm in the Lakes and the sharp front to the East Coast that may bring snow with and behind it to the East Coast. I will post on tomorrow night and Thurs in the East later. The strat warm may mean February could make us shiver, because arctic air gets delivered. When it is all said and done, we may look back at this week as the week that started a three month period where the arctic attack and warmth fighting back lead to some wild forecasting, a true two faced winter given the boredom thus far.

It is risky business.. .Solo rischiando tu vivrai. Only by risking, do we live.

ciao for now