WARNING IN EFFECT:

There are no public warnings in effect at this time. For marine information, please view our Marine Forecast on our website, met.gov.bs.

GENERAL SITUATION:

The northern extent of a tropical wave currently moving across Cuba will interact with a mid to upper level disturbance hovering over the area, triggering instances of heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms that will gradually move northward up the island chain throughout the period. Expect conditions to become more stable across the southern islands by this evening in the wake of the wave, due to building high pressure and the presence of Saharan Dust.  

Outlook: Conditions across the southern portion of the island chain are forecast to improve by Monday as the mid-to upper-level disturbance weakens.  Meanwhile, moisture associated with the wave is expected to spread into the Northern Bahamas, leading to higher shower chances across those islands before gradually moving north of the island chain. For the remainder of the work week, ridging will remain established across the country through, resulting in warm and humid conditions with some isolated afternoon showers remaining possible. Winds are expected to strengthen to moderate to fresh as high pressure builds across the region.

SPECIAL WEATHER NOTES:

Severe Weather Potential: There is a slight risk of the development of a few strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of the Northwest and Central Bahamas. The public is urged to remain updated on all severe weather warnings issued by the Bahamas Department of Meteorology.

Heat and UV Index: Members of the public across The Northern and Northwest Bahamas are advised to remain hydrated, wear protective clothing and sunscreen and seek shaded areas while outside during peak sunshine hours (11am – 4pm), as UV indices are expected to be in the very high range and heat indices may reach the lower triple digits.

Rip Currents: A slight to moderate risk of rip currents exists along Atlantic-exposed beaches of the island chain. Beachgoers, particularly those in the Southeast Bahamas, should exercise caution when entering the water.

Flooding: There is a moderate risk of flooding occurring in low-lying, flood prone and urban areas during heavy rainfall events. The public is urged to exercise caution while traversing these areas. Coastal residents are advised that there is a marginal risk of coastal flooding during evening high tides through to Thursday.

NORTHERN BAHAMAS

(INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA, ABACO, BIMINI & ADJACENT WATERS):

SKY CONDITIONS:

Partly sunny today, turning mostly fair tonight.

PRECIPITATION:

10 – 30% chance of showers with thunderstorms.

WINDS:

South to southwest at 10 knots or less, falling light and variable at times this afternoon, increasing 10 to 15 knots tonight.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

88ºF – 91ºF / 31ºC – 33ºC

73ºF – 77ºF / 23ºC – 25ºC

98ºF – 102ºF / 37ºC – 39ºC

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

(INCLUDING NEW PROVIDENCE, ANDROS, THE BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA & ADJACENT WATERS):

SKY CONDITIONS:

A mix of sun and clouds, turning partly cloudy tonight.

PRECIPITATION:

20 – 40% chance of showers with thunderstorms.

WINDS:

Southeast to south at 10 knots or less, falling light and variable at times this afternoon, increasing 10 to 15 knots this evening.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

88ºF – 91ºF / 31ºC – 33ºC

75ºF – 79ºF / 24ºC – 26ºC

98ºF – 102ºF / 37ºC – 39ºC

CENTRAL BAHAMAS

(INCLUDING EXUMA, CAT ISLAND, LONG ISLAND, SAN SALVADOR, RUM CAY & ADJACENT WATERS):

SKY CONDITIONS:

Partly to occasionally cloudy.

PRECIPITATION:

20 – 40% chance of showers with thunderstorms.

WINDS:

Southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

86ºF – 90ºF / 30ºC – 32ºC

75ºF – 79ºF / 24ºC – 26ºC

96ºF – 100ºF / 36ºC – 38ºC

SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS

(INCLUDING INAGUA, ACKLINS, CROOKED ISLAND, MAYAGUANA, RAGGED ISLAND & ADJACENT WATERS):

SKY CONDITIONS:

Cloudy and hazy.

PRECIPITATION:

30 – 50% chance of showers with possible thunderstorms, decreasing to a 20 – 30% chance of showers tonight.

WINDS:

East to southeast at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts this afternoon, increasing 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts tonight.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

82ºF – 86ºF / 28ºC – 30ºC

75ºF – 79ºF / 24ºC – 26ºC

N/A

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

There is one (1) area of interest in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over Eastern Mexico has a low, or 20 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next seven (7) days.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR MONDAY 15^TH JUNE 2026.

SKY CONDITIONS:

Northern Bahamas Partly cloudy to cloudy  

Northwest and Central Bahamas: A mix of sun and clouds, becoming mostly fair at night

Southeast Bahamas: Partly cloudy

PRECIPITATION:

Northern & Northwest Bahamas: 20 to 40% chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms.

Central and Southeast Bahamas: 10 to 20% chance of isolated afternoon showers. 

WINDS:

Northern Bahamas: South to southwest at 10 to 15 knots.

Northwest Bahamas: South-southeast to south-southwest at 10 knots or less, becoming southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots by the evening

Central Bahamas: Southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts.

Southeast Bahamas: East to southeast at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. 

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

82ºF – 91ºF / 28ºC – 33ºC

73ºF – 81ºF / 23ºC – 27ºC

98ºF – 102ºF / 37ºC – 39ºC

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TUESDAY 16^TH JUNE 2026.

SKY CONDITIONS:

Northern Bahamas: Partly cloudy 

Elsewhere: A mix of sun and clouds, turning mostly fair at night.

PRECIPITATION:

Northern Bahamas: 30 to 40% chance of widely scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms. 

Northwest Bahamas: 20% chance of isolated showers with possible afternoon thunderstorms. 

Central & Southeast Bahamas: 10 to 20% chance of showers. 

WINDS:

Northern Bahamas: South to southwest at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts, decreasing to 10 knots or less by the evening hours

Northwest Bahamas: Southeast to south at 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to 10 knots or less by the evening hours

Central Bahamas: Southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to 10 knots or less by the evening hours

Southeast Bahamas: East to southeast at 15 to 20 knots 

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

84ºF – 90ºF / 29ºC – 32ºC

75ºF – 81ºF / 24ºC – 27ºC

98ºF – 102ºF / 37ºC – 39ºC

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR WEDNESDAY 17^TH JUNE 2026.

SKY CONDITIONS:

Southeast Bahamas: A mix of sun and clouds, turning mostly fair at night.

Elsewhere: Partly sunny, turning mostly fair at night

PRECIPITATION:

All Areas: 10 to 20% chance of showers and possible afternoon thunderstorms

WINDS:

Northern Bahamas: South to southwest at 10 knots or less, backing southeast to south by the evening hours

Northwest and Central Bahamas: Southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts.

Southeast Bahamas: Southeasterly at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts.

TEMPERATURES:

MAXIMUM:

MINIMUM:

HEAT INDEX:

84ºF – 91ºF / 29ºC – 33ºC

75ºF – 81ºF / 24ºC – 27ºC

96ºF – 102ºF / 36ºC – 39ºC

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR THURSDAY 18^TH JUNE 2026.

SKY CONDITIONS:

Northern Bahamas:  A mix of sun and clouds

Elsewhere: Partly sunny, becoming mostly fair at night

PRECIPITATION:   

All Areas: 20% chance of showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms

WINDS:

Northern and Northwest Bahamas: Southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts.

Central and Southeast Bahamas: East to southeast at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts.

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• • Tropical Update
  • Seasonal Outlook

• June 14, 2026, 11:30 a.m.

  • NHC is seeing this the way we have been forecasting for days now.
  • The feature over Mexico will emerge over the northwestern Gulf.
  • Whether named or not, this is likely to cause disruptive wind and rain in the northwestern Gulf on Monday, Tuesday in the Texas coastal waters, and Wednesday over Louisiana.
  • Even when inland, we still may have to deal with feeder bands that can be disruptive.

  Euro AI rainfall amounts for the upcoming several days:

  

  The Euro AI Ensemble has plenty of members seeing this.

  Tuesday morning:

  

  Wednesday morning:

  

  Thursday morning:

  

  At that time, you can see the members spreading it out through the South.

  June 12, 2026, 6:30 a.m.

  • The tropical wave entering the Gulf will continue to the northwest.
  • The feature will reach the coast of Mexico this weekend.
  • It should turn northward after that.
    • Named or not, it will cause heavy rain and gusty winds Monday-Wednesday in the northwestern Gulf and the coastal waters.

  Cloud shot:

  

  Once the system reaches land, it should not continue inland but come back out over the northwestern Gulf and develop early next week.

  Google DeepMind members:

  

  The Euro AI Ensemble has many members, showing it by Wednesday

  

  At the very least, this energy will feed into the front that will be reaching the coastal waters of the Gulf and enhance disruptive conditions in the Monday-Wednesday period.

  Precipitation over the next 7 days:

  

  June 10, 2026

  • A powerful El Niño is developing.
    • This will be a significant ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) event.
  • The closest analog is 2015.
  • There are no changes to the forecast numbers.
  • The impact forecast has the highest chances, relative to normal, in the northwestern Atlantic.
  • There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.
  • The Western Pacific will take up the global slack.
  • A higher impact season for Mexico is on the table.

  The forecast numbers for the 2026 season

  Total storms: 9-13
  Hurricanes: 3-5
  Major Hurricanes: 1-2
  Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2
  Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3
  ACE Index: 85-105

  

  Let me explain the map. Relative to the average ACE in the areas above, I expect the northwestern Atlantic to be the only place above average. That area averages 10-15 ACE points a year. So I am expecting it to be more active there.

  Farther to the south, in areas with higher average ACE, I expect a large area of below-normal ACE. I lean below in the other areas because of the puncher's chance I was talking about. There have been major hurricanes in the Gulf in El Niño years. Betsy is legendary (Audrey in 1957 is too, but it was earlier). Anita in 1977 went full bore, Category 5, but stayed to the south of the Lower Rio Grande Valley. 2002 saw Lili and Isidore, the only two Category 4s in the Gulf within 10 days of each other. Neither hit the U.S. as a major hurricane, though. Interestingly enough, it's much of Florida to Cape Hatteras that has not had at least one big hit in El Niño seasons. The Northeast has had Bob and Belle.

  This is more like 2015 (which had Joaquin for the Bahamas):

  

  So I am jumping on that analog.

  

  

  This El Niño means business:

  

  Now that we have a good look at the Euro, its message is strongly bearish on the overall season and well below the averages since 2015.

  

  SST forecasts

  First of all, the 2023 hyper-El Niño season saw a nice warm stretch in the Atlantic.

  

  The SOI for that El Niño revealed a Pacific pattern unlike most El Niños, despite warmth farther to the east. This allowed the big numbers we had then, so that the analog has been taken out.

  The hyper 2024 season, which we picked out in the prior December, featured the ultimate setup with a weak La Niña and a large area of warmer-than-average SSTs in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.

  

  You could see this happening already in December 2023. Hence, we had our forecast out early, and the results spoke for themselves.

  

  The pattern was ideal with all the storms hitting in the target area between the center of the westerly shear over the Southeast and the strong easterly shear to the south. Outflow is more apt to be greater than normal between the two, and we saw that in 2024.

  This season is the antilog to that, however, with warm water split in the Atlantic and a stronger El Niño:

  

  So is the shear pattern:

  

  The Sea Level Pressure forecast is not favorable either, implying stronger than average low-level easterlies in the Main Development Region at the height of the season:

  

  That would increase shear.

  There is no stopping this El Niño event, as the cumulative buildup of heat had been held back by the La Niña. It's coming gangbusters now:

  

  This is ahead of 2015's pace:

  

  The SOI is already in an El Niño in the 90-day period. It was moderate in May, and it's been strong over the last 30 days:

  

  The Western Pacific Typhoon season has been remarkably quiet for the last few years, contributing to the overall downturn (slightly) of Global ACE. This is because the Western Pacific is home to close to 60% of the Northern Hemisphere's normal ACE. There have been only two extremely active years since 2015, and the busiest was 2015, our analog.

  

  Remember, the normal is around 300. So I would prepare for a lot of activity in the Western Pacific. The Eastern Pacific looks normal to a bit above normal, and there will likely be some late-season landfalls on the Mexican coast. Hawaii also has to be wary, as El Niño years have been known to bring problems there.

  The East Pacific can also be, as here are the numbers for 2015:

  290.6

  26

  16

  11

  Extremely active

  The Verdict

  The forecast numbers have not changed, as we were out there early with the less-than-average season idea. Now, using my shear method, I feel that despite the ACE being below normal overall, the northwestern Atlantic may be the one place that winds up seeing above normal activity. In the Gulf, there have been too many examples of hits or near-misses during El Niños to fit them into the large below-average area I have. My biggest concern is New England into the Maritimes, where a couple of storms would have them above normal ACE.

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