Final 2019-20 Winter Forecast 1 month ago

November 27, 2019

  • The three month forecast has been made colder.
  • There are many SST similarities to 2013-14 and 2014-15.

The previous forecast:

We have changed the analog, which is very close to what was mentioned before:

At this time in the Northern Hemisphere, the SSTs are amazingly close to a blend of 2013-14 and 2014-15.

The biggest features are the warm Indian Ocean dipole, the tropical Pacific being warmer near the Dateline than areas farther to the east and the gorilla in the room, the northeastern Pacific, which is similar to 2013-14 and 2014-15. That last thing is a nice source for enhanced water vapor and feedback that leads to ridging in northwestern North America. The warm water off the East Coast, as we head deeper into winter, typically enhances eastern storm threats.

Over the last day or two, the CFSv2 has started jumping on a pattern similar to the 2002 analog, which would be trouble with a forecast that was based on a blend of all the analogs (unfortunately some are very warm, some very cold and they do not play nicely together). There are a lot of moving parts here, but the idea of a cold mid and late winter is still there.

December

The analog:

January

The analog:

We did not make any changes to January.

February

Analog:


The Verdict

The threat of major cold is still on the table and we may not be cold enough, though we have moved in that direction. Modeling has had a devil of a time with the cold air as we have seen in November, but the idea that the core of the cold air will wind up over the East for the mid and late winter is still there. That does not mean it can't be cold in December, it's just that the core of it should still be back over the Plains. There is a lot of potential on the table here.